I was not told that I was drinking alcohol, so I just carried on and then felt that a little strange...At least, after rejecting the invitation to a bar, I could ride my bicycle and go back to school. Rather than staying at dormitory, I chose to go to the resource room at jingguan building. I knew that I was a little drunk, so I was going to find a place where I can relax myself without disturbing.

Fine, a totally crazy night...games, beers and music....traditional stories....That was Hallowmas!

But now, I'm busy writing my paper...paper!!!a long paper...

• 单一的色调
• Keep off laptop [2nd week, Nov]
• 有喜有忧……AZADA Complete!
• 幻想三国志4通关……
• 决定期待《空之轨迹 the 3rd》繁中版……
• 双星物语2 [ ZWEI Ⅱ」即将上市啦~
• 一台没有游戏、不能上网的电脑
• 闭关修炼结束…
• 《三国志11》！！！
• 《英雄传说VI-空之轨迹》通关!

1 Introduction

Recently, I had to stop all the other works and have focused on the empirical test of a horizontal merge. Although, in fact, I'm not as interesting in this topic as some others, like the analysis of reputation and motivation and the empirical test of micro foundations for macroeconomics,  there is no better choice before finishing this project.

When calculating the price effect of the mergers, I was busying choosing an appropriate model for econometric use. Obviously, the easiest way was just using the "difference-in-differences" analysis, which was popular among many areas of economics. Thus, it was more effortless than doing with other complex models since so many relative resources were available.

However, the biggest problem for me was that the difficulty in collecting useful data. Because some data had  not been published, my research had to be laid on the table. An alternative way was to find another model which demands fewer data. Fortunately, I have find the PCAIDS model, which is developed by Dr. Epstein, Adjunct Professor of Finance at Boston College, and his coauthor Dan Rubinfeld at UC Berkeley.

As the author's description on its webpage（Link: http://www.royepstein.com/support.html）,

The invention of PCAIDS (Proportionality Calibrated Almost Ideal Demand System) by Roy Epstein and Dan Rubinfeld stands at the forefront of current applications of merger simulation.

Meanwhile, the apparent advantage of PCAIDS is its lower requirement of data, just like the author's words:

The only data requirements for PCAIDS are market shares and two price elasticities: the elasticity for a single brand in the market and the industry price elasticity. Scanner data and econometric estimation, while useful, are not necessary. These features make it possible to perform simulation in nearly any transaction at relatively low cost.

Therefore, my estimation can be done more efficiently.

To better understand the application of PCAIDS, I'd love to read some relative papers first and translate the necessary knowledge on my blog for my readers who are also interested in using this PCAIDS model to simulate the potential effects of the merge. Thus, the following paragraphs are written in Chinese, compared with the original information in English. I'll try my best to avoid any possible mistakes especially misunderstanding, but anyway, the original words by the author is still the best way of understanding the model.

This blog-post will be updated continuously, and since the author wouldn't like to distributing the software program for PCAIDS right now, I'd like to write one (may work with Stata or Matlab) for my own use, and published here if I can get his permission.

After all, I could stop myself to show my gratitude for these two authors' talent work,  who developed this wonderful model for the analysis of merge effects, and also Dr. Epstein's kind help and support. Thank you very much!

1 序言

最近，我不得不停下手中其他的活儿，集中精力做一个关于横向并购的研究。虽然，事实上我并不是和对其他的那些问题，比如声誉和激励的分析、宏观经济学的微观基础的实证检验一样，对这个问题充满了兴趣。但是眼下我并没有更好的选择，直至做完这个项目。

在计算兼并的价格效应的时候，最忙碌的莫过于选择一个适合的计量模型了。显而易见，最简单的办法就是使用“双重差分法”（亦译作“倍差法”），其在经济学的很多领域得到了广泛应用。从而相比于其他复杂的模型而言，这是一种颇为节省时间的办法，因为可以很容易地查到太多的相关资料。

然而，对我而言最大的困难就是搜集相关数据。很多数据属于公司的私有信息，并没有被公开，所以我的研究不得不暂时搁置。另一种可行的办法就是找到一个所需数据量更少的模型。幸运的是，我找到了PCAIDS模型，是波士顿大学的Epstein博士和他的合作者加州大学伯克利分校的Dan开发的。

正如作者在它的网页上所述，

PCAIDS（近乎完美的需求系统的比例校准）模型的发明站在了当今并购（兼并）模拟模型应用的最前沿。

与此同时，PCAIDS模型最明显的优势就是其对于数据量的低需求，正如作者所言：

PCAIDS模型只需要市场份额和两种价格弹性的数据：对于市场中一个品牌的弹性和整个行业的价格弹性。扫描数据和计量估计虽然有用，但并不是必须。这些特点使得它可以低成本的模拟任何交易。

正因为此，我的估计研究将有希望更有效率的完成。

为了更好地理解PCAIDS模型的应用，我很乐意先阅读一些相关的论文，并且翻译一些必要的相关知识并放在我的博客上，希望那些同样对PCAIDS模型感兴趣、想用它来估计并购（横向兼并）潜在的单边价格效应的读者可以有所借鉴。因而，接下来的段落将主要用中文撰写，并且附有原始的英文信息以作对照。我会尽力避免可能的错误，尤其是理解上的偏差，但是无论如何，最好的办法依旧是阅读原创作者提供的介绍。

此外，这篇博文将会持续更新，而且由于作者暂时不希望分发PCAIDS的软件程序，我将试着自己写一个（应该会是针对stata或者matlab软件下运行的程序）作为自己研究所需，并且如经作者允许，我会把相关程序在此公开。

最后，我在此难以抑制心中对于这两位作者天才工作的感激之情，感谢他们开发了这么一个简单易行的计算并购效应的模型，还有Epstein博士的热情支持与帮助。非常感谢！

2 Overview of PCAIDS

(From: http://www.royepstein.com/mergersim.html)

Merger simulation is poised to become a standard economic tool to evaluate the potential unilateral price effects of mergers. A recent FTC working paper includes merger simulation among the past decade’s "remarkable developments in the quantitative analysis of horizontal mergers." (See Issues in Econometric Analysis of Scanner Data at www.ftc.gov). Despite its usefulness, however, simulation is probably still unfamiliar to many antitrust practitioners.

Unilateral effects are most relevant in markets with differentiated products. The competitive concern arises when a substantial number of customers who previously would have been lost after a price increase might be retained because the merged firm also offers the alternative brand preferred by these customers. In this case, the merged firm may find that it is profitable to increase prices because relatively few customers would be lost.

Merger simulation addresses the practical question of how to measure the size of potential unilateral effects. Using basic economic theory, it analyzes the post-merger market using key relationships involving market shares, price elasticities, and merger-related efficiencies. The economic model yields the unilateral effects as the price changes that are necessary for the market to be in equilibrium when the new firm (and its competitors) act to maximize profits without overt collusion.

The simulation can predict price increases or decreases from a transaction, depending on the configuration of inputs used to calibrate the model. Large shares for the merging parties or relatively large cross-price elasticities between them tend to result in large price effects. Small shares, small cross-price elasticities, and/or large efficiencies tend to produce small or even negative price effects.

This analysis is quite flexible and is able to integrate the traditional Merger Guidelines focus on factors such as market definition, efficiencies, and entry and product repositioning. It can also evaluate the impact of a divestiture, which might be especially useful in designing a "fix it first" strategy. Most importantly, simulation provides a coherent economic framework to analyze options for complex transactions that might otherwise be quite difficult to quantify reliably.

For details on technical issues of specifying and solving a merger simulation model, return to the PCAIDS Support main page and the links to articles given there.

Related Articles by Roy J. Epstein

• "Merger Simulation with Brand-Level Margin Data: Extending PCAIDS with Nests." With Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 4: No. 1, Article 2. (UC Berkeley Electronic Press).
• "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications." With Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Antitrust Law Journal 69 (3), 2002, pp. 883-919.
• "Merger Simulation and Unilateral Effects: A Primer for Antitrust Lawyers." American Bar Association, Section of Antitrust Law, Economics Committee Newsletter 2(2), Fall 2002, pp. 3-6.

2 PCAIDS模型概述

(From: http://www.royepstein.com/mergersim.html)

并购/兼并模拟渐渐成为一个标准的用于评估并购/兼并所带来的潜在的单边价格效应的经济学工具。最近的一篇FTC（联邦贸易委员会）工作论文包含了对于近十几年来在并 购/兼并模拟取得的“对于横向兼并的定量分析中的显著进步”（见扫描数据的计量分析，www.ftc.gov）。尽管它很有效，然而，并购模拟可能仍然对 于很多反垄断参与者来说所，是有所陌生的。

单边效应在差异化产品的市场中尤其显著。出于竞争性的考虑会随着大量先期在价格上升中流失的消费者的保留而上升，因为兼并后的厂商依旧供应不同的品牌以供这些消费者选择。在这种情况下，兼并后的厂商会发现上升价格会带来更多的利润，因为很少的顾客会流失。

兼并的模拟强调一个实际问题：怎样衡量潜在的单边效应的规模？在基本经济学理论中，我们利用关键的因素，包括市场份额、价格弹性、兼并带来的规模效应等等，分析了兼并前市场状况。该经济学模型中产生了单边效应，由于新厂商和他的竞争者追求自身利润最大化（不包括公开的串谋），即恢复市场均衡所必须的价格变化。

这种模拟可以预测一个交易后的价格上升或者下降，依赖于投入资源的配置来校准这个模型。高份额的兼并双方，或者相对高交叉价格弹性的双方，倾向于产生高的价格效应。小份额、低交叉价格弹性、高效率则倾向于产生较小的甚至为负的价格效应。

这种分析方法是非常灵活的，并且可以整合传统的并购准则——关注市场界定、效率、进入和生产重新定位等等的诸多要素。它同时可以衡量“资产剥离”的影响，尤其是在设计一个“定资先行”的策略的时候。更为重要的，这种模拟提供了一个一致的经济学框架用来分析难以可靠估量的复杂交易的各种选择。

关于其他技术的细节和构造一个兼并模拟模型，请回到PCAIDS支持网页和其中所列的相关文章。

相关文章 by Roy J. Epstein

• "Merger Simulation with Brand-Level Margin Data: Extending PCAIDS with Nests." With Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 4: No. 1, Article 2. (UC Berkeley Electronic Press).
  基于品牌级别的毛利数据的并购模拟：使用Nests对于PCAIDS模型的扩展
• "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications." With Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Antitrust Law Journal 69 (3), 2002, pp. 883-919.
  并购模拟：一个简化的方法和新的应用
• "Merger Simulation and Unilateral Effects: A Primer for Antitrust Lawyers." American Bar Association, Section of Antitrust Law, Economics Committee Newsletter 2(2), Fall 2002, pp. 3-6.
  并购模拟和单边效应：对于反垄断律师的初阶指导

3 PCAIDS Technical Support Notes

From:http://www.royepstein.com/support.html

Many readers of our PCAIDS article in the ALJ have asked about details of implementation. In terms of software, I have developed my version as an Excel add-in, which can handle all of the computations and is very convenient for many users. Others have told me they are using Mathlab, Mathematica, and even PERL. Any package with an optimization routine should be fine.

The most common issue so far is how to evaluate the FOC equation (A3). You must use post-merger values. The easiest way to do this is to update the shares using equation (1) to get s(new)=s(pre-merger)+ds. You can then generate new elasticity matrices E1...E* using equations (4) and (5). Remember that the E matrices are transposes in the appendix.

You should certainly explore the power of PCAIDS with nests. The Appendix discussion of nests has two minor typos--the last sentence in section 4.B. should read "the familiar s_i/s_j." Also, the equation for b_ij at the top of page 918 should have a leading minus sign. There is also a minor typo in the derivation of (A5), the conclusion is correct but the line above it should replace the first two terms in the parentheses with the product b_ij/p_j PQ/p_i.

There was a slip in the example of entry on p. 909. The predicted price increase for B should be 4.5%. The corresponding value of alpha is .061, implying a threshold share for the entrant of 0.26%. I am indebted to Dave Schmidt at the FTC for pointing this out.

Table 3 (toilet paper shares) was scrambled in the ALJ version of the paper. Table 3 should read

The discussion and simulation results use the correct data.

[2009.7.26] Forthcoming: some parts quoted from these papers above.

3 PCAIDS技术支持笔记

From:http://www.royepstein.com/support.html

很多我们PCAIDS论文（反垄断法期刊）的读者询问了完成的一些细节。关于软件，我已经开发了我自己的一个版本，作为一个Excel插件，可以掌控大多 数的计算并且对于很多人来说非常易用。一些其他的研究者告诉我他们使用matlab、Mathematica甚至PERL等软件。任何一个包含最优路径的软件包都很好。

最普遍的问题就是怎么估计一阶条件（A3）。你必须使用并购后的值。最简单的办法就是更新市场份额——使用（1）式来获取s(new)=s(pre=merger)+ds。你可以使用(4)和(5)式产生新的弹性矩阵E1...E*。谨记：E矩阵在附录中进行了转置。

你必须确定的使用nests挖掘PCAIDS的力量。附录中的关于nests的讨论有着两个微小的错误：4.B章的最后一句应该是“the familiar s_i/s_j”。并且，918页上b_ij的方程式前面应该有一个-号。（A5）式的推导中也有一个小错误，结论是对的，但是它上面一行中最初两项应该用b_ij/p_j PQ/p_i替代。

909页的例子也有一些小失误。B的预期价格上升应该是4.5%。正确的alpha的估计值应该是0.061……我感激联邦委员会的Dave Schmidt指出该错误。

表3的格式和数据如下，该讨论和模拟结果使用了正确的数据。

--------------------------------------To be contiuned (未完待续)-------------------------------

• 大数据的潮流？
• [RAAT]第一话：微博的数据该怎么玩呢?
• 重看“理性经济人”假设
• 小世界
• 找寻经济直觉 [3rd week, April]

Tonight, I dated with one old friend. We wandered around the campus at first, and then went to a good restaurant called "旺角", which offered a series of Guangdong food. The "Durian cake（榴莲酥）" and "Hawaii Pie（夏威夷煎饼）" were very delicious, and we also enjoyed the comfortable environment there. What's more, I liked the rice gruel with some seafood very much~

Then, we took the bus to the Inzone Shopping Mall near Honglou Square. At first we wanted to watch a movie, but soon changed our idea-- we chose to go shopping instead. Although nothing was bought, the process were more important... Is it the nature of women?

At the end of our plan, it was playing some games in the amusement hall. We nearly spent an hour there, and really forgot the pressure during daily life.

Thus, it was a beautiful night, since I spent tonight with one of my best friends which haven't meet for a long time.

最后来点中文吧，感觉英文表达还是有些问题的，挺煽情的文章写得干巴巴的。总而言之就是很舒服的和一位老朋友度过了一个美妙的夜晚，逛街、打游戏、美食等等等等都是珍贵而值得纪念的，不知道以后还有没有这么悠闲的时候。再去感慨物是人非或许有些杞人忧天，不过还是深深的感受到越来越珍贵和难得。话说，下周想去Rosemary Cafe，放松一下找点小资情调，呵呵。

• 两日三餐[1st week, July]
• [疗伤之旅]第六站：杭州，第一篇
• [疗伤之旅]第四站：北京
• [疗伤之旅]第二站：香港
• 午后阳光
• 301，永久重定向！
• 没有相机的旅行[4th week, April]
• 北京几日印象
• 我们站在分叉路口
• 电影主题餐厅——茉莉餐厅

摘要：森林生态经济价值的评估是国内外研究热点之一，其研究对于增进人类福利和可持续发展具有重要意义。本文结合国内外最新研究资料建立了一套科学的评估体系，从交叉学科角度综合运用生态学和经济学方法，全面评价了生态经济服务价值。评估体系中既包括传统的林木产品价值，又涵盖了生态旅游价值、涵养水源、净化大气等生态服务价值。
结果表明，济南市柳埠国家森林公园的生态经济总价值为5.14亿/年，其中生态旅游价值占近57%是最为重要的价值。这一结果体现了生态服务功能带来的价值远远超过传统 我们认为的自然资源价值，因而对于森林公园的开发利用要从可持续发展角度出发，结合科学发展观合理开发规划，以充分发挥森林公园的生态服务价值进而改善人民福利。

Abstract:Forest, as the main body of land ecosystem, plays an important role in global ecosystem.The research of evaluation of its ecological economic functions will benefit human beings' wellbeing and have significant influence on sustainable development. At present, many scientists from the area of ecology and economics focus on using different methods to estimate the value. This article uses several scientific methods to establish a entire system with more than 10 indexes to estimate the value of these services. To measure them, we start from the combination of ecological and economic analysis means. We take into account both traditional ones like the sale value of woods , and ecological ones like the service values of eco-tourism, water storage and air quality purifying. In our conclusion, the total value of Jinan Liubu national forest park is 514 million RMB per year. As the largest proportion, the value of eco-tourism hold nearly 57% of the whole, which lead it to the most important part. This result indicates that ecological functions, such as water storage, eco-tourism and erosion control  of the forest exceeds the traditional value (i.e. natural resources) in a large extent. Therefore, the utilization of forest should be based on the conception of sustainable development, and consider different aspects together to fully enjoy the profound value for
every individual's welfare.

Evaluation of Ecological Economic Functions of Jinan Liubu

PDF下载/PDF available Here:http://www.loyhome.cn/Evaluation_of_Ecological_Economic_Functions.pdf

• 真实的大数定理[2nd week, May]
• [疗伤之旅]第五站：济南
• 济南的味道
• 中国，济南，蓝翔技校
• [2009, Summer]一人园林，二人咖啡——摄影作品集
• 送别季先生
• [recent work]基础设施建设对外商直接投资影响的实证研究——以昆山和东莞为例
• 咫尺天涯，劳燕分飞
• Back in Jinan!
• [recent work]股价信息量和投资的股价敏感度

Now maybe it's the end of this wonderful assignment which lets me check all the knowledge about microeconomics and other relative sources. After more than 10 times re-doing, with different solutions coming one by one, it seems to be the most unforgetable experience about homework and it's really a good way for me to forever remember my dear advisor, Dr Yue.

Is it the final end or just a totally new beginning? There are numerous subjects for me to learn and prepare for the final examinations. Oh, I should carry on to finish my translation work. That's really a urgent work. Well, how about the X'mas gift? Is there enough time for me to make that fantastic production? Oh, it's really a considerable question because time is limited but things are unlimited. My poor life... no freedom...

At last, I'd love to copy and paste the words written within the process(no update?)

The extra gain behind this assignment
Am I right? Prove it!
Life is full of surprise, and this time is not an exception. When an unbelievable thing happens, how to face the music?
While I regarded the question itself as a failing one, which is because of a simple neglect with the symbol “+”, no one believe me even myself. Try to following the words on the paper I get myself into a big trouble. After careful searching the resources, I finally prove that I’m right.
The most important achieve is not the faith of believing myself, but the knowledge I got while searching the information in the library within hundreds of economic books and journals. The best result is not just solving a question, but the total understanding of it. That is the most precious experience in study.
“Extra gain”? The “Bonus” is a better description. Thank you for your pretty mistake.

A good use of Internet
When you are confronted with a big problem, what’s your first preference? Of course, it is the wonderful Internet. By simply typing some words into the search box, all the reference is shown on the screen. What’s better is that when using the electronic resources in the university network, you can freely download most articles found. Thanks a lot to the free electronic resource like Justor and Wiley, I have easily found the useful reference and those helped me a lot.
So just make a better use of the great Internet!

• Waiting for an end
• 这个寒假要做的……

因为有比较好的各种软件应用基础，还有HTML+CSS知识，还有一定的编程经验，所以很快的就弄明白了LaTex的工作原理。但是也只能做到很慢慢悠悠的排版（一道做3个小时的题，大概也要用三个多小时完成输入和排版）——尤其是最后看到复杂的源文件，大有当年彻夜改HTML+CSS的感觉，只想崩溃。但是看到生成的堪称完美的PDF,又很有成就感了。

有的时候开玩笑的给朋友说，这次做中微作业最大的收获绝不是作业本身。而是一些“Extra Gain”。在此不多多废话了，本文最后再讨论那些问题。

这里想跟大家分享的是昨天遇到的一个耗了我好几个小时的难题——如何在LaTex插入图像。我用的是CTeX套装，然后又去网上down了n种版本的教程，但是都没有完美的解决我的问题——如何插入Photoshop绘制的EPS（因为我的电脑当时只有Photoshop这一种绘图软件，我也最熟悉这一种软件）。

先说说几种不甚完美的尝试：

• 使用JPG图像，虽然可以转换为EPS，但是效果实在是让人不敢恭维。

• 使用Photoshop导出EPS，然后在GSview里面转换为PS，最后插入PS。因为转换步骤较多，失真较严重。

最后我仔细研究了一下LaTex直接插入EPS提示的错误：Cannot determine size of graphic in **.eps <No BoundingBox>

然后想起来在调用includegraphics的时候，有可选的参数\includegraphics[bb=0 0 451 200,width=7cm]{graph1.eps}。用于在boundingbox参数丢失的时候来指定boundingbox。正好photoshop所生成的EPS图像就是欠缺这个参数，于是赋上一个合适的数值之后，就可以用了。 至于数值，大家可以仔细调整然后看看效果，我也没很弄明白它是怎么定义的，还是改改看看效果满意为止吧。

最后再补充一点，Photoshop并不是很适合做EPS，虽然它可以生成EPS，但是由于其是位图绘图（光栅绘图），所生成的EPS也差不多类似。故而，应选择一些矢量绘图软件（如Illustrator），更为专业的可以选择Origin等专业的科学绘图软件。我刚刚安上了Illustrator，等研究好了再来向大家报告哈。

最后，附上一些英文写的“The extra gain behind this assignment”。不再翻译了，大家凑活着理解吧。

Am I right? Prove it!
Life is full of surprise, and this time is not an exception. When an unbelievable thing happens, how to face the music?
While I regarded the question itself as a failing one, which is because of a simple neglect with the symbol “+”, no one believe me even myself. Try to following the words on the paper I get myself into a big trouble. After careful searching the resources, I finally prove that I’m right.
The most important achieve is not the faith of believing myself, but the knowledge I got while searching the information in the library within hundreds of economic books and journals. The best result is not just solving a question, but the total understanding of it. That is the most precious experience in study.
“Extra gain”? The “Bonus” is a better description. Thank you for your pretty mistake.

A good use of Internet
When you are confronted with a big problem, what’s your first preference? Of course, it is the wonderful Internet. By simply typing some words into the search box, all the reference is shown on the screen. What’s better is that when using the electronic resources in the university network, you can freely download most articles found. Thanks a lot to the free electronic resource like Justor and Wiley, I have easily found the useful reference and those helped me a lot.
So just make a better use of the great Internet!

Try to use professional software
LaTex may be the best choice of making a perfect pdf document which contains many mathematic symbols. There is a little difficulty at the beginning, but to carry on you can do a wonderful work. Learning the use of this software is completely the “Extra Gain” when doing this assignment. But I have to say that I benefit a lot from this experience.

To be continued…

最后的最后，刚刚看到魅族新手机M8的视频展示了。自行移步吧。如果我的黑莓继续瘫痪，可以考虑入手一个了…… http://www.cnbeta.com/articles/70315.htm

• LaTex和lyx中文PDF中EPS图片插入全攻略
• LaTeX讲座预告及大纲
• LyX2+XeTeX/LaTeX若干中文问题
• 更新至TexLive 2009
• 将中文latex/tex文件导入Lyx!
• 从Scientific Word到Lyx
• 许久不用校内
• 千里之堤，溃于蚁穴
• 有趣的R包——试卷生成器
• 在LyX里面使用分章节的子文档

Sir James Alexander Mirrlees, FBA (born 5 July 1936, Minnigaff, Wigtownshire) is a Scottish economist and winner of the 1996 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He was knighted in 1998.

詹姆斯•亚历山大•莫里森先生，FBA（出生于1936年6月5日，Minnigaff, 威格敦郡[英国苏格兰原郡名] ），是一位苏格兰经济学家，曾获1996年诺贝尔经济学奖。他于1998年被授予爵士称号。

He was educated at the University of Edinburgh and Trinity College, Cambridge, where he was a very active student debater. Between 1968 and 1976, James A. Mirrlees was a visiting professor at MIT for three times[1]. He taught at both Oxford (1969-1995) and Cambridge (1963- and 1995-). During his time at Oxford he published the economic models and equations for which he would eventually be awarded his Nobel Prize. They centred around situations in which economic information is asymmetrical or incomplete, determining the extent to which they should affect the optimal rate of saving in an economy. Among other results, they demonstrated the principles of "moral hazard" and "optimal income taxation" discussed in the books of William Vickrey. The methodology has since become the standard in the field.

他曾就读于爱丁堡大学和剑桥的三一学院，他曾经是一个活跃的学生辩手。 1968年至1976年，詹姆斯•莫里斯曾经三次作为美国麻省理工学院的访问教授 。他曾经在牛津大学（ 1969年至1995年）和剑桥大学（ 1963年-1 995年- ）任教。他在牛津大学期间，出版了关于经济模式和公式的著作，并因此最终将被授予诺贝尔奖。他们围绕着经济信息的不对称或不完整的情况下，在一个经济体中如何确定最优储蓄率的问题。在其他的结果中，他们证明了威廉•维克里在其著作中所讨论的“道德风险”和“最优所得税”原则。这种方法已经成为该领域的标准。

Vickrey and Mirrlees shared the 1996 Nobel Prize for Economics "for their fundamental contributions to the economic theory of incentives under asymmetric information".

维克里和莫里斯共同分享了1996年诺贝尔经济学奖，授奖原因是“他们对于不对称信息条件下的激励的基本经济理论贡献” 。

Mirrlees is emeritus Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge, and Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge. He spends several months a year at the University of Melbourne, Australia. In 2006, he was appointed Master-Designate of the Morningside College of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, along with the biologist Samuel Sun Sai-ming [2].

莫里斯是剑桥大学的名誉政治经济学教授和三一学院的研究员。他每年在澳大利亚墨尔本大学工作一段时间。在2006年，他被任命为中国香港大学晨兴书院的候任院長，和著名生物学家塞缪尔•孙西铭一起。

He is a member of Scotland's Council of Economic Advisers.

他是苏格兰的经济顾问委员会的成员。

• 直击高峰——与诺贝尔经济学大师James A. Mirrlees面对面[更新照片]
• 找到的一些关于英国名校经济硕士(msc)的留学资料
• 笑
• 答Taiyun问(3)：经济学疑雾重重？
• 中国的经济、经济学和经济学家
• [RAAT]第二话：如果，定格初见~
• how far away?
• 懂经济学的客户伤不起啊～～～
• economists
• 美好时光

So reading is important and essential, but more attention should be paid during the step of choosing. I will try to get a reasonable list instead.

• 高度决定价值——《经济学思想史讲义》有感
• 徐启福的逻辑思维和读书气质
• 读书很杂，思维活跃，功利学习和沉淀

I have said about Dr Yue Qiao, my teacher of intermediate microeconomic, for many times. But yesterday I changed my judgment because of the game theory chapter. It was amazing that he explained that theory extremely well. Compared with the previous chapters, he was more confident and fluently, which showed that he is familiar or even an expert in this area, just as he said that he had taught it more than 6 years and his research area was it as well.

Although there were only half an hour for him to talk about this theory and it was only possible to introduce the simplest examples, he performed in a surprising way that most of our audiences understood it quite well. Thanks for his effort.

When I meet something worthy enough to admire, I won’t save the words. It’s my expectation that he will give us more wonderful lessons in the future. I’ll wait for that.

曾经在博客上介绍过我的中级微观经济学老师乔岳博士，昨天我彻底的改变了自己的看法，由于他讲博弈论这一篇章。实在是很令人惊奇，他非常好的解释了这一章的内容，尤其是跟以前的章节相比，他显得更为自信和老到。这向我们证明了，正如他所说的他教过六七年这个东西了，而且他本人的研究方向也是这一块儿。

尽管只有半个小时的剩余时间供他来讲博弈论，他也只能选择一些简单的例子来讲解，但是他表现得非常完美，在座的大都沉浸其中。感谢他的努力。

当我遇到值得赞美的事物的时候，我不会吝惜我的语言。更期望以后他能给我们更加美妙的授课，竭诚以待。

 和英文相区别，我想用中文说一说一些关于我学习博弈论的事儿。

先后在图书馆里面借了很多书，包括博弈论的简单事例介绍和冯·诺依曼关于《博弈论和经济行为》的书籍，加上下载了拉斯缪森的《博弈与信息》，我却越来越迷茫了。博弈论和计量经济学一样是一门方法论学科，并且都是在上世纪后期兴起的。上学期学习了计量经济学，可以说是很扎实，但是只是感觉这是一个工具而已。但是博弈论却让我觉得充满乐趣，可以沉浸其中自娱自乐的。

不知道为什么，书本上的叙述多多少少显得过于呆板，而数学的冗杂分析让我实在是提不起精神好好的思考那些原理性质的东西。虽然我们下学期才会开授这门课程，但是我还是自发的想多多的看一些关于博弈论的东西，虽然很可能不会把它当作一个研究方向来做课题。我说过我对信息经济学比较感兴趣，所以寄希望于通过博弈论了解更多关于信息的作用和价值，从而更好的为我的未来服务。

好了，罗罗嗦嗦的又说了这么多，我想还是踏踏实实地看书笔写这些来得更为有用——至少对于我自己来说。但是我的表达欲实在是不得不满足一下，要不有些“学而不思则罔，思而不学则殆”了。或者叫做“学而不写则罔”更为恰当吧。

• 乔岳博士（Dr. YUE QIAO）和他的中级微观经济学
• 烙饼
• 从众和市场效率（market efficiency）
• 也说“从众”
• 找寻经济直觉 [3rd week, April]
• Equilibrium makes economics a science? [3rd week, Nov]
• 台上一小时
• 济南真的很热[4th week, June]
• 对于信息经济学教材/参考书目选择的一点建议
• 鱼与熊掌的选择

It has not been a long time since the latest version – v17.0 – was released. The best advantage in this version is that it contains multi-language packages include Chinese and the translation is in high quality. It also brings some video tutorials and samples which you can use to learn how to control this software by your self. To accumulate some experience, I follow this help and learn step by step to achieve something useful.

Maybe it is not very hard for me to learn this software because of my rich experience in computer. During my tests, the most important things I realized is that a good knowledge of database is essential especially the structure of the standard of database management system. It can be easily seen that SPSS 17 provides numerous ways of data analysis. You can just look at the picture below.

I am following the sample of the statistic from a survey of an area. A simple table which shows the percentages of each group and a line graph which indicates the relationship between Wireless use and PDA application are the achievement today.

More tries will be done in the future and I’m waiting for your response or comments. Thank you.

• 刚刚经历了Chrome的第一次全面崩溃
• 统计软件：R
• LaTex和lyx中文PDF中EPS图片插入全攻略
• 在Latex插入Photoshop绘制的EPS图像
• 在SPSS 17中的简单尝试
• 乔岳博士（Dr. YUE QIAO）和他的中级微观经济学

.Com bubble in the starting of this century is still in someone’s memory nowadays. But today I’d like to talk about the latest trend in present website world.
The bulletin board system (BBS) was anticipated to become three shapes by someone in the past:

• News Aggregation (Like Yahoo.com or Sina.com),
• Community and Forum (Like MySpace.com and Mop.com),
• and E-commercial website (Like Ebay.com and Taobao.com, or Amazon.com or Dangdang.com).

This results from the three main prototypes of BBS. Here I am not going to discuss this topic in a theoretical way. Instead, I’d love to introduce what I have focused on during these days.

Dangdang.com (just a website like amazon.com) is one of the most popular and successful B2C (Business to Customer) website in China. It shares a bigger proportion in online shopping than the compeers and sometimes we regard it as the leader of these websites. Now the hottest pieces of news in the Chinese Internet world is that “Amazon.cn decreased the rate of return-back to the spread alliance” and “Also increased the standard of free-carriage shopping”, which represents the idea about “Internet’s winter is coming” that Ma Yun, the leader of Alibaba.com, said some days ago in his company’s conference.

But let’s see it in the long-term. I had my first experience of online shopping in nearly the year of 2001 on Dangdang.com( In Chinese only). Today Dangdang.com is much more different than it used to be in the past. No matter what we see, the indexes from its statistic data like sale quantity and the gross visits of the website, or the explosion of its goods and new pattern of selling, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that dangdang.com has undergone a long-term change and benefited much from these years. In some ways, we can say that dangdang.com is a lucky one, although not as strong as Amazon.com. It has build a wonder in the internal environment. Who smiles last smiles the best. These years witnessed the growth of domestic publication and transportation. The success of dangdang.com is not only because of its fortune, but also a certain result. Without dangdang.com, there must be someone else doing the same things like it as well.

However, the most popular class of websites in China currently is SNS, which can be represented by Xiaonei.com which is the copyist of Facebook.com. Douban.com is welcome by many people here in China as well. I don’t want to distinguish them clearly, though there is much difference. In fact they are in the same way of attracting individual’s attention and trying to keep them in their spaces. Although douban.com copied the mode of website from the US, the managers of it have done a good job in localization. I wonder that how many of you have the feeling that it’s difficult to choose a valuable book from thousand of publications in today’s market and how many of you are willing to share the happiness or soreness with the others who read the book as well. All these problems are solved by the free service from douban.com. The information exchange is the most essential and significant task of the Internet, which can be shown well in this way.

The last one I’d like to talk about is Taobao.com, which is well known in China by the old and young. It is famous for the hundred and thousand categories of goods the sellers supplied. Nevertheless, many people are fond of it as well as hating it. They usually have the happy experience that a lot of money was saved and the good quality productions were bought by shopping there. Meanwhile, some sellers were cheating and the buyers lost much money. Despite of these, Taobao.com has successfully surpassed Wal-Mart in selling scale, which is more than surprising. Most people still remembered that taobao.com won the competition with ebay in China a few years ago.

The only reason why I put these types of websites together here is that we can easily see the trend –they are learning from each other – in the present market. Maybe it’s better to take Baidu.com into account at the same time, but not yet.

Taobao.com offers most of the information in the ground of exchange web pages. In spite of those, the most welcome area is Taobao’s community, where visitors can share their experience and give advices to others. The numerous posts show the real situation of online shopping to every one in this electronic and numeric world.

Douban.com is a community of reader and music fans. So there isn’t any need to say more.

Obviously, dangdang.com is devoting itself into the establishment of the customer-response system. A series of strategies have been used to draw the users’ attention and encourage them to leave a comment on what they have bought or what they are going to buy. Another sign is that the best-selling book list on dangdang.com now becomes one of the best references for customers. Most of the books on this list can provide much money to both the authors and the publishers. More precisely, the famousness comes with money together. Meanwhile, the deeper exploitability of these books is developed rapidly.

It seems that now most people go shopping online not only for the convenience and low price but also the trust of the valuable information, which represent the low cost of information exchange through the network has remarkably decreased the exchange cost. Maybe it’s a very interesting phenomenon in economics and there are appearing more and more new ways of trade using the Internet. It does not simply influence the traditional distribution pattern, but contains much about advertisements and spread ways. We can say that almost every step in the culture industry has been changed much and benefited from this application.

There are always people who like to make a forecast. In fact, the Internet certainly brings us surprise every a few months. It’s really hard to say which method can succeed in the future. I would rather like to say that the advanced pattern, spread strategy, ability of techniques and continuous improvement are the pivotal elements in the success.

1. Advanced patterns: The spirit of innovation, and the test of creating something absolutely new.
2. Spread strategy: According to the success of Kaixin001.com, most community website need a large number of users and must keep them in their spaces.
3. Ability of techniques: To realize the ideas and ensure that others cannot copy their pattern in a short term.
4. Continuous improvement: Rapid response to the change in the market and requirement of users.

Commonly when we are going to evaluate a program the first thing we do is to set up our goal and the most important part of the goal is the market sharing proportion. So what should we consider more? I cannot give you an exact answer here because there are the numerous variables and the perfect model based on mathematic analysis could not explain the realistic world quite well. Even though we cannot use the happiness of a fact to explain another fact, the better way should be just follow the forth goers. As a matter of fact, the survival websites in China are most like the shadows of some foreign websites.

At last, the web2.0 let us to participate widely in present virtual world. This is the very chance that websites could survive and grow. The community and users’ circle are good ways of keeping the visitors which is called “User’s Loyalty” in management. But it is also easy for others to rob users from you and you only achieve the financial loss. In the information age, how to exploit the most of user’s information and try to apply it in your service is a key awareness. Many websites are doing excellent tests and maybe a rapid progress can be seen in a short time. But according to the form of internal environment, it’s more likely to see that some big websites who have the monopoly of the market, which is resulted from the technical barrier. On the other hand, it may not be a bad thing to today’s Chinese Internet industry. Who can know the future result?

• 当当，豆瓣和淘宝
• 不一样的亚马逊和Amazon
• 潮流的味道
• kindle 3中文无乱码、改默认词典、增加屏保及截屏快捷键等
• Innovation and leadership
• 关于开心网的一点消息
• 语言与技术，未来和态度
• Web 2.0
• 几本好书
• 关于娱乐子站改版的所有想法和技术分析

http://www.loyhome.cn/480.html

To many leaders there is a simple question: how to improve the productivity and efficiency. The innovation is defined as something newly introduced and in economics we classify it into 5 categories: introduce a new production or new quality; adopt a new method in producing; exploit a new area of market; find a new way of gaining resources; establish a new organization form.

Now especially in China the innovation is a popular topic that you can see it everywhere when an announcement is needed. But on the contrary, there are few ones which can be well used in the practical applications. That means we do know that we need to change, but we do not know how to. Moreover, some people regard it as a humorous answer when they have no idea about what can be done. The fact is that it’s easier saying than doing.

Meanwhile, the managers often take the innovation into account and they spend much money and energy on encouraging their employers. China is on the way of fast developing and innovation is essential to keep the rapid growth speed. In this financial storm nowadays, many companies are experiencing the worst situation with the appreciation of RMB and the descending demand in the US and other western countries. We often say that the challenge and chance comes together but when it comes to this situation now, what’s the effective way? The Chinese leaders are devoting to the industry reform and many of the new techniques are waiting to be applied in producing. Many small factories in the south China are confronted with the choice to change their final productions instead of the labor-intensive ones. From MP3 to cell phones, from textile to toys, from shampoo to cosmetic, what’s the next?

Every year the government input many resources into scientific and technological researches and many companies do these as well. But the biggest proportion of our export goods is machines and other manufactures. Compared with the ones we import from Japan in the pattern which is called inner-industry trade, our productions contain lower value and the only advantage in competition is our price, which is mainly determined by our low cost of labor. According to the statistics from the government, the wage level is increasing continuously and is nearly beyond the largest level that the factories can support thereby causing a large scale of bankruptcy.

In many economic textbooks the author mentioned that the leader or the enterpriser is worth respects because they are fighting with the big risk in the market. Thanks to their effort and spirit we can live in this flourishing world today. In the following years China is really in the need of excellent enterprisers and this is the only way to create or improve the new structure of our modern society. Many domestic managers have the awareness of innovation but they are not strong enough to stand the huge risk and enormous input so that it’s the government’s responsibility to establish the strategy of encouraging and giving strong financial support to the enterprises.

Innovation plays a pivotal role in the future international competition among developed countries and emerging economies. Every aspect of innovation is important but the most significant one is the new way of productions so that we can share a bigger part of the trade cake which enable us to live a much better life. That is the mission of ours and our offspring’s.

To my dear Chinese readers: this article is more like a practice of my English writing so the Chinese version may not be as interesting and vivid as the other articles I wrote before. The only thing I can say is sorry because it’s really hard for me to use a dramatic way of English writing as well as Chinese, which I have been studying and using for more than 20 years. To write more in English, the simple wish is to attract more foreign readers and let they know the view of a Chinese University student. May be there’s a long way to go to realize this dream, but when I first established this Chinese blog there are hardly any readers and now it’s much better beyond my thought. So I will persist and try to communicate with more foreign friends. Thanks for all your supports and thanks for reading.
I will continue my economic writing work and try to have influence on more readers. Thanks to Google, the great search engine, for bringing so many readers here.

• 小额信贷的革命家-独一无二的穷人银行家默罕默德·尤努斯
• 春天的拜占庭/Byzantine in Spring
• Dangdang.com, Douban.com and Taobao.com

click the pics for larger ones.

         

• 优雅的爵士——Joomla研究手记
• 从零开始打造wordpress博客
• 刚做完第一个Wordpress主题……
• 没有灵感，只能这样
• wordpress同步到微博的小提醒
• 初识Markdown语法
• wordpress之手动查木马侵入
• 301，永久重定向！
• 多久没变化了?
• 对落园的一些例行调整

Your comments are welcome. Thank you.

• 从零开始打造wordpress博客
• 刚做完第一个Wordpress主题……
• 没有灵感，只能这样
• New Theme Update to V1.1

are my communicate tools.

• brand myself!